Can adverse childhood experiences predict chronic health conditions? Development of trauma-informed, explainable machine learning models

IntroductionDecades of research have established the association between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and adult onset of chronic diseases, influenced by health behaviors and social determinants of health (SDoH). Machine Learning (ML) is a powerful tool for computing these complex associations and accurately predicting chronic health conditions.MethodsUsing the 2021 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey, we developed several ML models—random forest, logistic regression, support vector machine, Naïve Bayes, and K-Nearest Neighbor—over data from a sample of 52,268 respondents. We predicted 13 chronic health conditions based on ACE history, health behaviors, SDoH, and demographics. We further assessed each variable’s importance in outcome prediction for model interpretability. We evaluated model performance via the Area Under the Curve (AUC) score.ResultsWith the inclusion of data on ACEs, our models outperformed or demonstrated similar accuracies to existing models in the literature that used SDoH to predict health outcomes. The most accurate models predicted diabetes, pulmonary diseases, and heart attacks. The random forest model was the most effective for diabetes (AUC = 0.784) and heart attacks (AUC = 0.732), and the logistic regression model most accurately predicted pulmonary diseases (AUC = 0.753). The strongest predictors across models were age, ever monitored blood sugar or blood pressure, count of the monitoring behaviors for blood sugar or blood pressure, BMI, time of last cholesterol check, employment status, income, count of vaccines received, health insurance status, and total ACEs. A cumulative measure of ACEs was a stronger predictor than individual ACEs.DiscussionOur models can provide an interpretable, trauma-informed framework to identify and intervene with at-risk individuals early to prevent chronic health conditions and address their inequalities in the U.S

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements